Today has been a good day in the market so far. It's easy to get trapped into saying "Oh, if I had bought in to UPRO, I would be up 5% from the lows." This thinking is parallel with your neighbors or family members that go to Las Vegas and come back bragging I won $20,000 while I was there. There is a 95% chance it was not their first trip there, and how much did they lose to get that $20,000. And even if it was, after winning like that, they will go back and "donate" it back. The market not only has to go up, but it has to be somewhat predictable, and repeatable. It's okay to sit this out. This still feels like a bear rally. I am in 80% cash, and a little slv that is a longer term hold. For that one, I am playing the QE effect, since I am not as effective timing slv by TA alone.

For my 401, we are currently diversified into:
60% Bonds
10% Large Cap
10% Small Cap
10% REIT
10% International

As you can see, I am bearish for now, and am looking for a good short play on SPXU, but waiting for a nice set-up. You have to be cautious on shorts with QE running, elections, etc. Be selective, but not scared.

Leave a Reply.