Purchase Reason: see last couple pages of tech analysis. XIV is maxed out, and really there is not a lot more good news that has not been priced into short term that I can see. We broke 20 EMA and price is getting lazy.

12/3 Update - Sold out of SPXU today, took a small loss, but nothing too much, still up 7.5% on the past 30 days for my swing trading, but I would be foolish not to consider what is happening. 

There are a couple reasons I am backing out now. First, MACD on SPY is about to go positive. That will likely trigger a number of buys and algo's as well. Today had the possibility of being a catastrophe but it wasn't. I have three homemade daily algo's myself that have a pretty good return rate as well. They have some poor drawdown, but the end result is good. I do not trade strictly by them, but all three went bullish. On the flipside, VIX:VXV went up to 93.4%. Ouch, that is not good. I can tell you something big is coming, but my plan is not going according to schedule and I do not want to lead you or myself astray. There is no pride in trading and I will not hold a trade because I hope something will go down. Hope is a sucker's game.

@TradewithMojo (stocktwits) brought up a subject that I want to think more about about as well. This may not be the big down movement that I have been looking for, although it may still be down. He offered some advise on the McClellan Oscillator that I had missed, and we may have one more pass back up. 

Our plan had been going very well for weeks, and we have made money on it, 7.5% for the month, including today's loss, but I am not going to publish some rubbish on here simply to offer reading entertainment. When you don't know what's happening and you are in a loss, get out.

Lastly, I have been making a mistake, which I need to correct. I have been playing bear swing trades and extending them to gain exposure. This one did not end real bad, but if I continue and these crazy bulls keep rallying, I will suffer huge losses before I get a chance to make money on the way down. 




Leave a Reply.