9:25 We are nearing a short term top in the market, but whether that is today or the end of the week is the main question. We are right under the 2nd standard deviation quantile as well as the .618 minor fib line with a potential shooting star, or "plunger" as I like to call it. The shooting star tail is not twice as long as the top however, and we are above closing price in pre-market, so nothing is confirmed. In an ideal situation the perfect set-up is an ugly candle right at the top of the BB. But Mr. Market does not always like to show his hand so nicely, and so far this is no exception.

Even before we get to the chart, we have a few things to note. This morning as of writing time, we are gapping up, but XIV and TNA are lagging UPRO, which is not the order I like to see for bullish gains. Additionally, after yesterday's push a second gap and hold seems less likely (although still possible). Today is also Fed announcement day around 12:30, I believe. These days are notoriously hard to predict. Remember the market is smart and has more resources than you or I will, so if it was knowable what would happen, it would have already done so. I suspect that while Bernanke will probably come out and admonish Congress on the Fiscal Cliff, the market data has not been terrible and would not currently warrant another round of QE on top of an ongoing QE. The main question that investors are looking for though is what will become of the operation twist program that is ending. I really do not know, so I guess we will all have to find out.

It's important to note that historically, there is not as much resistance at the price levels overhead, so moves upwards could be quicker than what we experienced so far, that is if the market can push upwards.
RSI is at 62 with its low dipping under 30 less than a month ago. If you look to left side of the second chart, just as we were coming out of the last 10% price drop from May, RSI hit about the same value and retreated. MACD did the same too at it's current value after nearly the same gains. STO has suggested overbought for a while, but we have no confirmation right now of it dropping immediately.

For now, we will let price decide what is going to happen. I would probably wait until at least lunch when the Fed makes a decision and then watch price/volume reaction. I do not mind missing a run-up if it offers a good down play, so ideally I would like to see price climb to just short of 146-ish, but that is too far away. Again, if I make a short purchase, I will note it both here and on stocktwits when I do it. I don't care for the pressure of being right and having to face the music when I am not, but if I am going to offer advice publicly then I think that is part of what should be done, win or lose.



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