9:15 AM - I have a meeting with some crooked Chinese officials later this morning that I am not looking forward to, so I have to keep today's premarket advice brief. Yesterday should have been the start of a ST bear movement. It is interesting though that the market did not really make it into the top quantile of std devs before it's first bear drop. That does not show a lot of forward power, but for now we will take it in stride. I am actively looking for a place to jump in bear.

A quick caveat: A respected elliotician I follow closely is predicting a strong 3rd wave up. He does not agree that this is a good bear entry. In elliot waves the 3rd wave is usually the most powerful and if he is right, well then that's the breaks of the game.

I do not personally agree with him. I think this bull move, which is nearly a month in progress is overextended and has been waiting to run out of gas. I also believe that since we are at the 1st std deviation and have made a run of 1.5 std dev, that even if we are wrong, it will be overcomeable, so the risk is not too bad. CPCE and VIX seem to be also support this belief.

I will post whatever I end up doing. As always watch price action or my posts for market timing if you want to follow suit.



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