Price: 142.15 doji

Daily BB: 
+2 std dev: 144.75
+1 std dev: 142.62
20 EMA: 140.48
-1 std dev: 138.34 
-2 std dev: 136.21 

Trend Lines: 
Upper: 142.24
Lower:  139.15

Notable Fib Lines: 
143.87 (.618)
139.80 (.50)
135.70 (.382) Spot of Reversal

STO: 96.41
RSI: 67.89
MACD: -0.13

Technical Analysis: Price firmly bounced off 50 week EMA, which was also the .382 Fib Line. Price jumped through the 20 day EMA and then came back and touched it, firmly rejecting wanting to go under that point. Price has shown extreme resilience against bad news. Price has not been able to pierce the upper channel trend line, but has attempted to consolidate underneath it. 

Expectations: Price will likely take 2 days to get to 143.87 (the market does not have enough juice to go past that point). Price will likely then fall 3-4 days to slightly below the 20 EMA. After that, I am not sure at the moment. The Fiscal Cliff will look very real in the next couple weeks. If $VIX spikes to 18 or 19 again, I firmly expect a crash. VIX:VXV is .915, and we are nearing a local top on SPY. With 3-4 hard days down, I could easily see that number jump to 1.00. $NYMO hit the top BB recently, and that usually suggests a top, but yet it wasn't. It is again hanging very near the top BB, and a couple up days could easily spark another top BB touch.  $CPCE is suggesting complacency/greed overall. 

Bottom Line: Short at 143.87, then you can ride it to the 20 EMA or choose to hold if you think there is more behind this.

Leave a Reply.