SPY
Price: 141.35
SMA
50: 143.34
200: 136.77
Bollinger Bands
Hi: 147.31
Mid: 143.96
Lo: 140.62
Action: Bands divided into 4 quantiles (1 for each standard deviation above and below the 20 EMA), Last four opens and closes were all in lowest quantile, which is below 1 std dev under the 20 EMA. Prices broke higher intraday, but could not hold/sustain that level.
RSI: 32.02 - Close to oversold
STO: 11.19 - Oversold
MACD: .008 - Momentum downward, about to cross 0 line. Dangerous

Technical Analysis: RSI and STO showing low levels, suggesting that on a short term basis, the bearish bias may be running out of fuel. MACD is about to pierce the zero line. This is extremely bearish last occurring in early May during the last significant correction. The daily 50 SMA is higher than price, and has turned from a positive slope to neutral. The daily 200 SMA is 136.77, which may become a magnetic target for pricing. The most noticeable warnings come from a break in two significant trendlines and an appearance in the lowest quantile of the Bollinger Bands, which both can be seen in the chart below. Daily movements into this realm are circled below and precede drops. Healthy bull runs upward do not make it into that lowest quantile. 

Suggestion: As with back in April 2012, the market can make another push and probably will, finishing off the classic double top, but a significant drop is usually looming, and as back in May, when it comes, it does come quickly. There is a playable bump, but you will need to be defensive in buying and should sell a little before the predictable, probable top. For now, we have three fib lines to act as guidance, 140.4, 139.4, 138.4. While the .38 (140.4) is the most common line to bounce from, I think a bump (1-3 day tops) here will be minor and it would be wise to hold out for a better point, such as 139.4 if you are aggressive or 138.4 if you are more conservative.

Chart 1: SPY daily chart - Trendlines with lowest BB levels circled




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