9:15 AM - Well, you have to hand it to the bulls, they refuse to give up, but I never doubted they would. They are becoming feral, rabid, and greedy. Also, please note that while I am bearish now, I prefer being a bull, it's a whole lot easier, but I see legitimate problems developing there, hence my unwavering stance lately. Also, I am not insulting them either. It's their collective approach not individually that is causing this.

Today will likely be the last day in a run. I expect a gap past the long term channel to avoid the issue of breaking it during session, which did not work for the bulls all yesterday. I do expect gap-fill, so we should retrace some early on, and then I expect the bulls to give it a nice run into the finish. Block out the news for right now. The only news that matters right now is "IF" they should find and announce an answer to the cliff. A firm answer with signatures. Until then, the news is a rollercoaster, so lets go back to charts.

Today is not a day to jump on the band wagon for bulls. It is only a set-up for shorts. I have a target of 138.8 as you can see in the chart below. One thing that must be noted, is that the 2 head fakes were in a bear market under a 10% correction, and we have reversed, so history may vary a little here as the situation has changed. It still is an excellent entry point. Today is Friday, and Monday is a new week, with a different momentum, and lots of time in between for traders to rethink positions.

If I am right, and if this is the last in a run, then we should have 3-4 bear days starting next week in a row as noted earlier this week. So far, everything has worked according to previous predictions, and I don't say that to pat myself on the back, but perhaps to note that our game plan / road map seems pretty accurate, and I think we can and should stay on course. If we are to have 3-4 day bear run watch out for VIX:VXV ratio. We are at .895 at the top of a bull run. What do you think will happen with 3 or 4 scary days. I could easily see a spike to or over 1.00. The 1.00 marker means, do not enter bull for ANY reason, and anything over .90 is "swim at your own risk". At any rate, the end of next week is my "official" week for capitulation prediction, but unlike the Mayan calendar, I do not want to confine it a day, as it was done using weekly charts and all chart predictions have some variability as well. I do still see it looming though.



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