We were looking for a 3 day rise and a down day, but part of the stipulation was that we wanted to see SPY price cross the 20 day EMA, which it did not, so I believe we will need to revise / extend our plan slightly. What it did offer was the daily STO bullish cross past the 20 "signal" on %D and a daily bullish MACD crossover, not just in SPY, but for DIA, IWM and QQQ too. However, gains has been tapering off logarithmically over 4 days starting with volume and ending on vapors. Of course some of that has to do with the Holiday week. Friday will be a half day and it should be low volume. And if I can add one more positive, tomorrow is black Friday, and I do suspect people will be out buying, which should excite the markets some too. China's numbers were good and finally they show expansion, and not only that but their markets have been roaring. The sour spots are Greece which is a dead weight with no resolution, but at least that is old news. The second is the US fiscal cliff. We have progress, but I expect shaky grounds with up and down news and final negotiations take place.

I would like to see what futures do tonight, to confirm my course of action. Right now they are flat to slightly up. For now, I suspect tomorrow we will break that 20 day EMA. Again, I see the market pushing for 142, but it needs a little more gas to get there and some downward consolidation would help to do that. From experience, reversals rarely goes straight up, and this 3-4 day rally is showing signs of strain. Nonetheless the technicals point to a higher movement tomorrow, and that is what I am going to expect. 

For now, I would like to see a break over the 20 day EMA with some force and end decently too, but preferably with low volume. This should set up a short term bear play. But this is a mixed signal market and you have to be nimble and willing to change your position quickly. I do apologize on that, as I know that can be a little hard to follow, since you cannot sit around and spam your refresh on my blog the whole day just in case I post something. We trade mostly on technicals, but you have to watch momentum, and be prepared for psychological spikes from macros and news events which vary the outcome as well. If I buy any position, I will announce it on stocktwits immediately and post it under trades here as well. 10:56 PM 11/22




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