Perfect, right on target for now. I am happily holding my UPRO tonight. I bought at 78.025 and we are sitting 80.66. We are still below the 20 day EMA, and what's better is daily STO is still under 20 giving us room to run, and the weekly oscillators should bottom nicely this week. I will keep studying tonight, but I see a triad up as of right now, including today's face-ripper. Tomorrow will likely be a day of indecision. It could also jump too, but I would favor indecision at the moment. Then, come Wednesday, I suspect higher yet, again at least for now. If you look at the historical aspect, you will see this is the general outcome on a strong reversal.

But.....

I cannot shake this suspicion $VIX is not content with its recent sub 20 spike. Sure it is low, definitely, and I think lower before this run is done. Anything under 15 to me is complacent, and that's not good. Earlier, I said I wanted to look for a call option in the money around 15.5, well we are already at 15.2 at the bottom of the daily BB, and I suspect we will see the low 14's before Thanksgiving week is over. I will likely buy a call option, but because of the momentum of SPY, we will need to play this by ear a little. I do think any purchase right now has a good R:R potential.

I do not want to come across as Chicken Little, but we have not had our expected $VIX spike, and today we are only 10% from the top again. This market has been logarithmically tapering off over the past 4 years, both on highs and lows. I just cannot see another serious leg up (over 155), before another strong down. The August '11 disaster offered a dip, followed by a strong fast march up only to be met with capitulation. For me, I want the market to prove that it is not going to do that. I would prefer it does not, but I see enough warnings right now to warrant a serious consideration. VIX:VXV is down below .91 to around 87ish and that is positive for immediate term at least.

Anyways, keep all this in your mind, if you see something I don't, please comment on it. - 9:51 AM



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