Price: 141.35 

Bollinger Bands
Hi: 144.01
Mid: 139.67
Lo: 135.33
Action: Price slid down lower BB, reversed to mid, slowed down and pierced mid.

MACD: negative, but bullish cross. Note: June 2012 bottom saw MACD of -2, same as now.
histogram: positive, increasing

RSI: 54.22 Action, last touched under 30 and rising.

Moving Averages
200 SMA: 137.57


Other Notes:
VIX:VXV = .861, comfortable
CPCE = .590, too low, bearish (coming off lower BB touch Nov 19th, very S.T. bearish usually)
VIX = 15.14, Too low as well, can go lower, but suggesting market complacency under 15. For as many problems as the economy has, the fiscal cliff and the negativity of earnings and unacceptable unemployment levels, this is problematically low. 

Technical Analysis: 5 consecutive white candlesticks with consistently waning volume and nearly 1.5 std dev movements since last down day, suggest that we are short term extended, but heading upwards overall. We experienced a rapid rise in RSI similar to June 2012. MACD is bullish although negative, suggestive of June 2012 as well.

Suggestions: Tread carefully because of VIX. I would expect a downward movement to at least the 20 EMA and probably a little further first. Then, we will need to see if this can rebound. Based solely on this chart, it would seem likely to rebound to around 144 or so. If there is no VIX spike, price will likely ping pong between the 20 EMA and the top BB. 

Again, for people not familiar with my advice, we are looking for a potential VIX spike on a break through a descending wedge in the VIX pattern. This VIX spike is not guaranteed, but I do feel it a serious concern, and will be playing extremely conservatively until the VIX 20 week EMA pierces the trend line with or without any consequential effect. My chart predicts it at the week of 12/7, which ironically is around the time period that fiscal cliff discussions come to a head. The cross-over is not confined to that week, but it will not be too far from it.

Play the market as you see fit, but please do keep it in mind at least.



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