Buy when there is blood and fear. Today, we are sitting right above the 200 day trend line, and the LT trend line. The 20 day moving average would have to push to break this support, and CNBC doesn't seem to have anything new to scare us with. The technical momentum does not appear to be enough to rip and sustain us through that support. Price averages follow the path of least resistance, and that will not likely be through a LT trendline while there is still wiggle room. I will be looking for a buy point around the mid 138 region for today.

When there is fear, there is volatility. If we bounce on the 200 day, there will be fear that it will hold. As it does, I expect pricing to get choppy and may pierce this support intraday. I do not suspect it will hold it until close.

As with all predictions, this is my best guess. It is how I will be playing it, and I am looking to make a long position today. Again, we are in bear country now, even when we have an up swing. Prepare for volatility and unexpectedness. Nothing should be as bad or as good as the news is making it though.

UPDATE: Looking at XIV buy point around 15.60, but will watch market action



Leave a Reply.