Today really can go either way, but I see more up than down for today, despite the worry in market sentiment. I see the reversal day as Fri, with Monday, Tuesday Wednesday as the 3 up days off a reversal. I would not jump back into Bull right now, because it will likely exhaust today, and I suspect Friday we will be down. If we cut across the 20 day EMA, currently at 139.68, that should set up for a nice down day Friday as mentioned. After that down day, we could be back up for a handful more days to probably the 142 area, which is one std dev above the 20 day. Of course by that time that target will move, so in effect keep an eye on that std dev marker as opposed to the actual price level. I would actually like to see price pierce that one std. dev. level as opposed to bounce off it. I suspect a roughly 3 day fall after that, which will present a great bear opportunity.

This is scenario A. If everything goes according to plan, which of course rarely does. But like Chess, you should plan many steps into the future, and revise it every time the opponent makes a play counter to your plan.

Scenario B: I will keeping harping on this VIX concern until I see the 20 day moving average pass through the upper trend line of the descending wedge and we do not get a massive VIX spike. Don't worry, it has to happen soon, whether it blows up into something big, or my great idea fizzles out, the cross-over is looming. I don't care if we have a Bull market or Bear market, I just do not like it when the market gives two very different, but both probable scenarios. I have been thinking about it, and this A VIX spike going to be hard to time perfectly. Usually, from history, everything will be looking very rosy for a week or two until... whack, and by that time it is hard to get on TZA, SPXU, or a VIX call. None of these should be held long, just 3-5 days unless that spike hits, so again we will have to play it by ear to time it correctly. I will be watching the VIX 20 day EMA, $CPCE and the $VIX:$VXV ratio like a hawk until then. 

So, which to choose? You will need to make your own mind on that. I may play an easy Bull or Bear play here and there, but I am not looking at long swings and both entries and exits will be conservative. Even if I do not get into a bear position in time should a big VIX event occur, I just do not want to get wiped out being fully long on a SPY -5% day. I may sit out for a bit as well. This has been a very strong year and even if I do nothing until the end of the year, I can rest my head happy. 9:54 AM

P.S. Happy Thanksgiving! 
P.P.S Go Buckeyes, beat Michigan!!!!!




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